A detailed, user-friendly oil and gas downstream financial model with three integrated financial statements and a full DCF-based valuation, built entirely in Excel.

Downstream oil and gas is a throughput business. Refining and processing assets are enormously capital-intensive, margins are thin relative to turnover, and the economics turn on capacity utilisation far more than on headline sales growth. A refinery running at 92 percent of nameplate is a different business from the same refinery running at 78 percent — and no revenue growth rate assumption will capture that distinction.

This model builds revenue from capacity, production, sales volume and unit price, so utilisation becomes a variable you can actually flex. Cost assumptions separate production cost from royalty, which matters in a sector where fiscal terms and offtake arrangements often drive the outcome as much as operating performance does.

The model covers 3 years of historical data plus a 5-year forecast period. Valuation is derived from the forecast using discounted cash flow methodology, with terminal value and discount rate assumptions fully under your control.

Built for Capital-Intensive Operations

Downstream assets consume capital continuously — turnarounds, upgrades, environmental compliance and maintenance capex all compete for the same cash. The model gives capital expenditure and depreciation their own detailed treatment across tangible and intangible assets, so you can see how the reinvestment burden affects free cash flow and, in turn, the valuation.

Debt is modelled across both long-term and short-term facilities, with interest income and expense calculated separately. Given how leveraged downstream operators typically are, that separation matters: you can test how a refinancing or a rate movement flows through to equity value without rebuilding the schedule.

Assumptions You Control

A single assumptions tab drives the entire model. Change an input and every statement, ratio and valuation output updates automatically. The inputs cover:

What the Model Produces

Comprehensive calculations run off your inputs to generate a complete set of outputs:

• Income Statement — historical and forecast profit and loss
• Balance Sheet — historical and forecast, fully linked and balancing
• Cash Flow Statement — historical and forecast cash flows
• DCF Valuation — driven off forecast free cash flows and your discount rate assumptions
• Ratio Analysis — a detailed analytical pack, set out below

Financial Analysis Included

The analysis sheet goes considerably beyond a standard ratio summary, giving you the metrics an analyst would expect in a full valuation pack:

Who This Is For

• Oil and gas companies building business plans, expansion cases or board materials
• Investment bankers and equity researchers covering energy and downstream operators
• Private equity and infrastructure investors running diligence on refining and processing assets
• Corporate finance and planning teams in energy running forecasting and scenario work
• Finance professionals who need a rigorous DCF structure for a capital-intensive sector

Why This Model

Need a model built to your own specification? See our financial advisory services, or browse the full range of DCF valuation templates.